Consensus View: The market believes C3.ai is on a strong growth trajectory with Q4 FY2025 revenue of $108.7M (+26% YoY) and full-year 2025 revenue reaching $389.1M (+25% YoY), suggesting continued expansion in AI-driven enterprise software solutions, particularly around supply chain risk management (C3 AI Supply Network Risk). The renewal of the Baker Hughes deal for over $500M indicates sustained large-scale client adoption and confidence from key industrial clients.
Implicit Assumption: The market assumes that C3.ai’s proprietary AI platform can continue to deliver measurable ROI in complex enterprise environments—particularly in supply chain risk mitigation—and that these outcomes will translate into recurring, scalable revenue growth without significant churn or competitive displacement. This also implies the company's software remains technically differentiated and not easily replicable by competitors.
Direction: Bullish (0.7 conviction)
| Event | Failure to deliver promised ROI from C3 AI Supply Network Risk in key enterprise clients |
|---|---|
| Timing | Q1-Q2 2026 |
| Impact | Potential client churn or contract renegotiation, leading to a >5% decline in recurring revenue growth rate and downward revision of FY2027 guidance. |
| Source | [PDF] Form 10-K for C3ai INC filed 06/23/2025 |
| Watch For | Client case studies or public statements from enterprise partners (e.g., Baker Hughes) on ROI metrics, and any changes in renewal rates reported during Q1/Q2 earnings calls. |
| Event | Competitor launch of a low-cost AI supply chain risk platform with comparable accuracy |
|---|---|
| Timing | By 2027 |
| Impact | Erosion of C3.ai’s pricing power, potentially reducing gross margins by >8% if forced into price competition in mid-tier markets. |
| Source | [PDF] Form 10-K for C3ai INC filed 06/23/2025; ai-20251031 - SEC.gov |
| Watch For | New product announcements from competitors (e.g., Palantir, SAP) in supply chain AI and any shift in C3.ai’s customer acquisition cost or average contract value. |
| Event | Regulatory scrutiny of AI-driven risk modeling under new EU/US AI regulations |
|---|---|
| Timing | Q4 2026 onwards |
| Impact | Potential compliance costs exceeding $15M annually and delays in client onboarding, especially for regulated industries like energy or finance. |
| Source | [PDF] Form 10-K for C3ai INC filed 06/23/2025; ai-20251031 - SEC.gov |
| Watch For | Updates to the company’s risk disclosures in future filings, and any public statements on regulatory compliance timelines or costs. |
| Analysis Date | 2026-02-15 |
| Model | local-model |
| Brain Version | 2026-02-14-initial |
| Source | watchlist |